President Obama’s Economic Recovery Will Continue To Sputter

President Obama’s auto task force has reported that if GM goes into bankruptcy, then the bondholders would need to take a 10% stake in the restructured company in exchange for their $27B they hold in GM corporate bonds. The re-emerged downsized GM could acquire another $40 billion in loans, which would be in addition to the already nearly $20 billion they have already received. It appears that the bondholders have been squawking over their deal. I say, too bad. Suck it up or loose it! Where is their “shared sacrifice?” as President Obama has demanded from the workers, and all those peripherally connected to the auto industry? Didn’t anyone tell the bondholders that investment is a risk and not a guarantee; and, that this is a bankruptcy unraveling? The UAW health care group will receive 17.5% ownership stake in exchange for the $20B owed them by GM. The U.S government will take a 60% stake in the company, while Canada will own a 12% piece of the pie.

And then there is the bankruptcy of Visteon Corporation, and Metaldyne Corporation both of which supply parts and chassis respectively for Ford Motor Company.

Automaker sales have plunged 37% this year through April, according to Bloomberg News.

The auto task force wants to see the newly-government owned GM company manufacture future cars in China. This sounds like more of the same strategy of outsourcing American jobs. Ship good paying manufacturing jobs overseas where they can be made cheaply, adding to our trade deficit, unemployment problems, further erosion of wages, and a diminished domestic tax base. This is more of the failed Reaganomics-style policies that failed the nation in the past. Haven’t Democrats woken up yet? Oh, I forgot, many are a part of this problem. Aren’t they?

Robert Reich pointed out in “What Industrial Policy Should Be”, 5-19-09, “So tucked into the latest version of climate legislation unveiled this week by the House Energy and Commerce Committee is a provision that doubles to $50 billion loans to help auto makers comply [to fuel economy targets].” Will such research and development, as well as design and manufacturing be done domestically? Or, will that be outsourced, too?

Ralph Nader and Robert Weissman wrote a letter addressed to both Senators Dodd, and Frank strongly suggesting that the Congress exercise their oversight powers regarding Obama’s consideration of bankruptcy for Chrysler and GM, “or other irreversible moves until after the task force plan has been subjected to close and careful review via thorough Congressional hearings.” It does not appear that such considerations will be honored. Just get rid of middle class jobs altogether appears to be the mantra of the nation’s elite. The richest 400 Americans, who have a net worth of $1.7 trillion, based on 2008 figures, which is around 10% of our GDP, want the welfare state kept in place just for themselves. Remember, they got this rich based on shoddy regulation of the financial industry, and the government’s allowance of over-leveraged mortgage-backed securities, as well as the credit default swap scam that kept the high roller financial bankstas, who had been betting against gains, even richer.

According to Les Leopold, in his piece “Fear and Looting in America…” in 1982, the top 400 of America’s richest, their net worth was $604 million; but, by 2008, this net worth had grown to $1.56 trillion!

It seems that the White House has grown so far removed from the collapse of the economy that there won’t be a recovery strong enough to buy even cheap foreign-made GM cars. What we have heard from the media bobbleheads is how the economy has picked up in May. “Hurray! Has a recovery begun? Will consumers continue to spend money they cannot afford to part with? Let us sure hope so! They better stop saving 4% of their incomes and go back to a zero savings rate. Maybe they will start borrowing again, too.”

Bomlat.blogspot.com wrote that “Personal savings as a percentage of personal income was 5.7% in April, compared with 4.5% in March.” Americans are now getting it. They better save more and spend less.

The bobbleheaded media pundits cannot see the forest through the trees. What happened in May? Well, there were graduations: college and high school. People bought gifts for the graduates. They traveled to college communities to attend these events. They ate in restaurants and bars. High schoolers bought prom dresses, and accessories. College graduates went to department stores and purchased, probably on credit, a few outfits for their interviews. There may even have been a few house parties. OH NO. WE CANNOT HAVE THAT NOW!

I believe such spending can boost the economy a few percentage points. The AP news service reported that the Consumer Confidence Index rose from 40.8 to 54.9. Macy’s Inc., Apple, and Best Buy Co. saw an increase in sales. Such data makes temporary sense. Families may actually spend money they don’t have on short, and local vacations in the coming weeks. Watch credit card debt increase over the next few months. Has anyone noticed creeping gas prices?

Wages have remained stagnant for many. Foreclosures seem not to be taking a rest during this rise in consumer spending. The private economy continues to shrink shedding jobs at a pace of more than 600,000 a month over the last half-year. Where will all these new college graduates find jobs? Will they earn enough to pay down their student loan debts or will they declare bankruptcy? If some are lucky, they will find work in the public sector getting experience from jobs funded through the U.S. government stimulus package. The private sector surely will not be expanding anytime soon in order to bring on new employees. Households have seen their net worth fall down the well at a cost of $13 trillion.

Also found on Bomlat’s blog, “Real gross domestic product-the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States—decreased at an annual rate of 5.7% in the first quarter of 2009…estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.” We have seen GDP over the last 2 quarter fluctuate between 5.7— 6.3%. Other economists have stated that our real GDP is actually in negative to zero ranges.

Bomlat also reported that “intermodal volume of trailers or containers was off 19.1% from last year, with container volume down 14.2% and trailer traffic off 37.2%.” This data is not very reassuring that a recover is soon at hand. Can someone call Ben Bernanke and tell him so?

The stock market knows that it has no legs. That game is only for those who can jump in and jump out. It has its own rules separate from reality. It has no long term sustainability.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be finding $1.7 trillion worth of treasuries coming due. He is printing up $1.75 more treasuries to pay for additional deficit spending. Who is going to buy these bonds? It will be the Fed themselves, more than likely. Will there be a point when foreign central banks and currency buyers stop believing in the continued erosion of the US dollar through debt expansion? Will the price of these bonds be driven down, while interest rates move upward? Will this build a wall in the path of home mortgage lenders and new house builders? Both Bernanke and Geithner already know that business-fixed investment, and non-residential fixed investment, which makes up most of all business investment, is collapsing at an annual rate of 40%. Does this sound like the private sector will be growing? The Bernanke fantasy that our national recovery will realize a 3% growth rate next year, 4% in 2011, and 4.6% in 2012 is just gobbligook. Currently, our GDP is basically negative. He drinks too much Psycho Kool-Aid at lunch.

Economist Niall Ferguson has stated that our 2009 deficit will move above 12% of GDP. He also stated that the Fed will likely be buying $300 billion worth of treasuries this year, but they will probably find themselves having to open up their balance sheet to buy more than that. Economist Paul Krugman claims that the US is currently in debt about 60% of GDP. Will the rest of the world back away from financing our growing debt by purchasing virtually zero percent interest bonds? The U.S is basically producing nothing of tangible value to export in order to bring down the deficits.

China is very happy to see all of our manufacturing going over to their side, so we can keep buying their cheap stuff. But at some point, most Americans will not have any money to keep that going. And, if our debt exceeds our GDP, we no longer are a viable economy. Our currency could become worthless through hyperinflation. If we ship our auto industry overseas, then many jobs, which would be interconnect to it, would disappear, too.

The economist Peter Morici recently wrote that “unless the economists are wrong, this key forward looking indicator of economic health [Durable goods orders in March were down 0.8% and the consensus forecast calls for another 0.3% drop.] would likely indicate that the recession has some to time to run. Until consumers have the confidence to purchase big ticket items and businesses put cash into new technology, the economic recovery is not at hand.”

Michael Whitney stated it beautifully. “The current downturn is not really a recession at all; it’s more like a self-inflicted wound perpetrated by avaricious speculators who put a gun to the economy’s head and blew its brains out. The banks and Wall Street have created a capital hole so vast that the entire economy is being sucked into the abyss. And it all could have been avoided. Credit production is too important and too lethal to entrust it to profit-driven vipers whose only motivation is self-enrichment. The whole system needs rethinking and public input before Bernanke wastes trillions more trying to revive the same crisis-prone business model. If “credit is the economy’s life’s blood”, as Obama says, then it should be distributed through a government-controlled public utility. The real lesson of the financial crisis is that privatizing credit has been a disaster.” (The Real Lesson of the Financial Crisis, Counterpunch.org, 5-19-09).

Thanks for reading, Jerry

The Consumer Thrift Reform Movement

The American working class must quickly realize they have the power in this nation. People feel they are helpless against the rich and corporate oligarchs. But, I am here to tell you how wrong you are!!! You are thinking I have lost my mind. No way.

I have had an epiphany, but may have come to it later than others. Here it is: Why are the financial bankers and the real estate industry moguls, as well as the multi-national corporatists all freaking out from the decline in consumer spending, which has made up 72% of our GDP? Why do they continue pressing for the opening up of credit when the people are already drowning in debt? It is because these debt predators have used the American worker as their wealth engine by keeping wages down enough so the worker must borrow money to sustain their livelihood. These debt predators only pay around 17% in taxes from the earnings gleaned from their dividend and capital gain checks, while the workers pay around 35% of their wages. The rich get off easy, while the working person pays the rich person’s share. Also, they have enticed us with cheaper interest rates and encouraged us to get drunk on spending. Go forward and buy cheap foreign-made stuff even though you don’t need it.

They are afraid. They are afraid that if the working suckers don’t begin to borrow again, the financial lenders won’t begin to collect on lucrative compound interest, fees and more. Therefore, if we stop borrowing, and control our spending outside of our daily essentials, then we can bring the lenders to their knees. We continue to force demand down just because we are in financial trouble. Currently, there is too much supply, which is one reason why prices are down. Once the supply is used up, and there are fewer products available, then prices start to climb, and inflation revs up more loudly. The corporations and real estate developers are all hysterical because their supplies are still in warehouses, on shelves, and on brand new empty streets.

It is true. It has already started by default. The American working class has been devastated by the collapse of their home values, and 4 million are upside-down on their mortgages. They are losing jobs at a rate of 500,000 per month! Their retirement plans have fallen 80%. Their wages are stagnant, yet they are watching the corporate and financial elitists receive bonuses, raises, fancy perks, and rides on brand new private corporate jets, while these very same economic vampires suck the currency blood right out of the treasury through bailouts and zero percent loans from the Federal Reserve Bank. We stare in amazement that big CEOs ask for bailouts while refusing to give up their salaries, bonuses and retirement plans as they look to the taxpayers to provide infusion funding for their failing corporations. It’s the No Corporatist Left Behind Program.

But wait!!! We CAN knock them silly just by telling them that we WILL NOT be buying any new cars, or borrowing money from their bank loan officers, or looking for a new house unless President Obama changes his HOPE direction and points it at the guidepost labeled Working American.

We want President Obama and his team of coaches from CITI, or Boeing, or GE, or Morgan Stanley, or wherever told that we Americans are tired of his derailed train already!!! Enough is enough. We had 8 years of an ignorant fool boy-president who destroyed the nation’s economy. He took 22 years of a slow burning economic fire, and poured gasoline all over it. President Obama, enough is enough.

We are tired of the same old faces. Geithner, Summers and Rubin, and the rest of the capitulators, who feel that cheating on their taxes is acceptable until they are caught, and are steering your train over to those very same people who have been stealing the nation’s economic wealth away from working Americans. Enough is enough!!!

We have now created the Consumer Thrift Reform Movement. We will contact our Congressional representatives to tell them that we will not borrow money from any “too-big-to-fail” financial institutions. If we have to borrow, we will go down the street to our local savings and loan, credit union, or bank. But that is only if we must!!! We will transfer or keep in place our accounts in those local banks, too.

We will stop spending our disappearing wages except for our daily essentials. We will withhold our spending until President Obama turns his Demo-con train onto the populist/progressive tracks.

We will do what the women in the play Lysistrata did. They withheld sex from their husbands until they decided to stop warring. We will stop spending until you either nationalize the failed banks, open up their books, consolidate their assets, write off their losses, and restructure, or let them go into bankruptcy. Take back their trillions of TARP and Fed fund window “loans”, which were really handouts, in exchange for their worthless toxic debt. OH BOY!

President Obama, you also need to stop the mortgage devaluation bleeding, otherwise, more Americans will walk away from their mortgages and leave their homes empty!!! Is this what you want, 8 million empty homes by the end of 2009? Fannie and Freddie already know that these home cannot be sold, so they are going forward to try and rent them!! I guess we will need more rental properties. Take whatever assets are inside those “too-big-to-fail” financial predatory institutions and salvage the mortgage crisis.

Next, YOU MUST tell any and all multi-national corporations that have facilities in the United States to bring back those jobs and profits NOW or they will be heavily taxed and tariffed. YOU need to stop listening to the thieves and economic predators, and begin listening to working America.

Then you must END our military aggression in the Middle East. We must return the $500 billion per year from Iraq and Afghanistan. We must downsize our military budget, since we spend more than all other nations combined.

Finally, you must stop excessive spending on Homeland Security as they put funds into spying on Americans and more needless and extravagant programs and more. We cannot afford all of these fat-cat spending programs that do not bring forth an economic recovery, but only take away from it. It is time that private companies begin to manufacture sustainable products that improve the quality of life, and assist the nation out of its economic crisis and not contribute to it by draining the treasury of funds that are needed to remake America.

We hold the power!! If we say NO to spending, so goes the economy, in the first 12 months of YOUR watch.

I hear you now saying that such a scheme would hurt our fellow working Americans, but my answer is that your plan will do more damage over a longer period of time. Your plan will be directing trillions of borrowed money from foreign countries that will NOT rescue our economy from the current and approaching disaster. My plan is a protest action; your plan is an economic policy. My plan would put Americans back to work, and reduce the trade deficit, as well as stimulate the economy from the bottom up instead of from the top down.

Your plan is to leave top tier tax cuts in place, and capitulate to those sending you text messages on your beloved Blackberry.

Working Americans are heading toward a severe recession, if not a depression that may last 10 or more years. Those at the top have plenty to live on, even though they may have to downsize a small bit of their lives, since many have cheated on their taxes, no doubt. Yet, they made their trillions, collectively, from their creation of the world’s biggest Ponzi Scheme. Enough is enough!