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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

A BRIC Thrown To President Obama

President Obama had a dream, but when he woke up he found a BRIC had been thrown through the White House window! (See the past opinion piece posting.)

The People’s Republic of China is ramping up the rhetoric. It is calling out the dangers of the world’s reliance on a “single sovereign-sovereign currency”. The danger lies in the “concentration of risk and the spread of the crisis”. Now, if this does not sound like “Reaganistic” Cold War Battle Cries, I don’t know what does!

Instead of the “menace” being the “Red Menace”, ie. Communism, it has become the United States via the dollar. (Read “Wary of Dollar, China Wants Super-Sovereign Currency”,; Xin and Buckley, 6-26-09.)

The People’s Bank of China is inferring the U.S. dollar is becoming not only an international concern, and a risky global currency, but also the Boogieman’s currency for all to watch under a global microscope by the planet’s new CSI (‘Currency Scrutinizing Investigators’) forensic headquarters—The International Monetary Fund (IMF).

There is new pressure on the IMF, as they become the organizational body, to perform Timmy Geitheresque Currency Stress Testing on the dollar, as well as other currencies being considered for reserve currency status.

They might ask such questions as, will the dollar hold up under increased financial loads, such as further bankruptcies, to include credit card and commercial loans, further un-underemployment pressures, higher federal indebtedness, expansion of poverty figures, additional military expenditures and entanglements, decreasing private investments, increased personal savings (currently, it reached 6.9% of disposable personal income, and will likely reach 10% in the future), and more.

The sited authors stated “In an essay last March, [China’s central bank’s governor,] Zhou [Xiaochuan] caused a stir by suggesting that the Special Drawing Rights, the IMF’s unit of account, could eventually displace the dollar as the principal reserve currency.” OUCH!

It appears that China’s central bank’s governor, the equivalent of Federal Reserve bank governor Ben Bernanke, has pushed aside the Federal Reserve’s head honcho, and others, as he grabbles his way to the top of the heap in order to claim King of the Hill banker status. The blustery talk of Mr. “X” puts fear into the Dow Jones and forces the U.S. executive branch to go on the defensive. Bernanke ends up looking weaker and weaker on the domestic front, as well as the incompetent head of ‘Banksta Incorporated’ who has placed the U.S. economy into its dangerous tailspin causing a national security disaster.

Mr. “X”, China’s “Dragon Master”, appears to have come out showing he might be able to reduce Beanie Benny Bernanke into a naked pile of carved up flesh shavings. 

China’s Mr. “X” wrote an essay in March referencing a PBOC 670 page report recommending the use of the IMF’s SDR (Special Drawing Rights) currency as the principal reserve currency. The report Mr. “X” referenced said, “ to avoid intrinsic shortcomings in using a sovereign currency as a reserve currency, we need to create an international reserve currency that is divorced from sovereign states and can maintain a stable value over the long term”, as sited in the Xin and Buckley article. Again, these two authors bring more forward.

It seems that China has taken a lesson from the Little Boy Bush Presidential Playbook. In the chapter named Mind Control, and under the subchapter---Make Them Afraid, the Chinese government has raised the “Red Flag” that the “U.S. fiscal and monetary stimulus will generate inflation and drive down the dollar, handing Beijing big losses on its vast portfolio of U.S. bonds”, as was reported by Chinese officials.

The PBOC report, as sited by the mentioned authors, laid claim that much blame can be placed at the feet of poor regulation and supervision. “[There has been] inadequate [attention] paid to the risks.”

Once again, Mr. “X” slaps at “Bada Bing” Bernanke and Timmy “the Titanic” Geithner’s hands, as well as the others culpable as governmental incompetents who are using government positions to serve their financial crime syndicate masters, and accomplices in the theft of America’s wealth for the purpose of derivative gambling via the securities crap tables in order to make the top 10% extremely rich at the expense of everyone else, while bringing the nation to a Code Red National Security Risk level. Where is Tommy “the Tank” Ridge when you need him to dispense the duct tape and sheet plastic.

Team Obama is hoping none of these changes will happen very quickly, but if the U.S. economy continues to erode, falter, and sputter as seen with June’s unemployment figures, there is much for concern. Team Obama thinks it has time on its side because there maybe trouble brewing inside China’s Emerald City. Experts are saying that China maybe creating its own economic/financial bubble, the likes we saw break in 2007.

China is buying up huge amounts of commodities inflating the prices. This is a worry. Chinese lenders are handing out cheap yuan to commodity speculators, while those in the “real” economy are having a hard time getting access to cash.

Team Obama might be waiting to see if such a meltdown occurs inside China, which might defuse the alterations to the dollar as the reserve currency.

China has spent $4T yuan on its stimulus. Bank lending for the purpose of issuing credit has reached $6T yuan since December. “Much of this lending has not been used to support tangible projects but, instead, has been channeled into asset markets”, written by Mr. Andy Xie in his piece titled “Fear the Dark Side of China’s Lending Surge” (found on Mr. Xie wrote further “The current surge in commodity prices, for example, is being fueled by China’s demand for speculative inventory. Damage to the domestic economy is already significant. If lending doesn’t cool soon, this speculative force will transfer even more Chinese cash overseas and trigger long-term stagflation.”

I believe we have seen this all before. Is China close to what we have already been experiencing with our economy? The flight of cash and investment, as well as the financial economy taking favor over the real economy is all too familiar to the U.S.

The People’s Bank of China’s vice-governor, Su Ning estimated more that $6T yuan of credit lines would be given to investors for the first half of the year. The economy expanded by 6.1% in the first three months, and is expected to grow by 7.0% from April to June.

China has seen significant outflows of capital exiting safe investments, such as money market funds into riskier credit and equity funds, such as emerging market funds.

Found on, Mr. John Lee was sited in his piece “Gloss Cannot Hide Rot in China’s Growth Story”, “Most Western commentators focus on the spectacular success of China’s export sector and the emergence of China as the world’s factory. But the greater contributor to Chinese growth is actually domestically funded fixed investment, which constituted over 50 percent of gross domestic product last year and more than 40 percent of that year’s growth.” “[B]ank loans drawn from citizen deposits funneled into state-controlled banks—constitute around 80 percent of all investment activity in the country.”

WOW!!! Does this sound familiar?

“Despite impressive GDP growth, about 400 million Chinese people have seen their net incomes stagnant or decline over the past decade. The income of the poorest 10% has been declining by 2.4% every year since the beginning of the century.”

Bloomberg News wrote this on 6-25-09: “hidden debt in China’s corporate sector is higher than revealed by official bank-loan data, since 44 percent of corporate capital expenditures in 2008 was financed by money whose source is literally unknowable.” This was the case with U.S. mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps. The origin of those bonds was literally unknowable, too.

If this actually happens, and the U.S. economy picks up, then Team Obama will look good. But, if China is able to maintain a positive GDP, and avoid an economic meltdown by building its nation from within--domestically, then Team Obama will likely be permanently damaged for the rest of their one-trick pony show presidential term.

How can the United States have a ‘jobless recovery’, which is what the flap jawin’ media is hacking about? The stimulus package will save many government jobs, such as those employed by colleges, universities, junior colleges, and those inside government offices, but where will that lead? From where will the nation’s productivity evolve? How will it increase exports, reduce foreign oil, improve the consumer markets, such as the sales of the New GM? Is Team Obama seeing the purchase of a New GM automobile the end goal? 

What is now being written is that through increased personal saving, the consumer spending frenzy, which was extraordinary, will return to what will be seen as more normal. Yet, what will be normal will require a significant shrinkage in the consumer marketplace, such as fewer retail jobs and the entire supply chain that gets product on the shelf. There will be shrinkage in commercial real estate, and manufacturing, as well.

It sure appears that the shrinkage is not over. I suspect there is much more to come. Now, who will blink first: China or the United States? Will BRIC succeed or fail?

Henry Kissinger said that Obama is playing a game of chess. Those who will continue to suffer are those in the middle and lower classes as their pieces get knocked off the board. Yet, it is clear that the biggest financial banking syndicate: Goldman Sachs and CITI will be standing right behind President Obama pointing out the moves.

Thanks for reading, jerry


SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Jerry, bravo my man on your piece! Crime syndicates are indeed what we have today with the two party system. They continue to put out bread and circus to confuse the common man while they steal the last nickel from the American Treasury. Quick, Somebody give me a crutch that I can swing!

Speaking of the Chinese, how would you like to have to feed 1.6 BILLION PEOPLE? How about 1.6 Billion pissed off chinese and migrants who have no jobs, no homes and no lifelines by the state and nothing left to lose. They, China, like other countries are seen in a very favorable light so far during this debacle, but this is a global implosion, and they will suffer at least as bad as us, if not much more so.

It's funny you bring up China because they just did a debt auction that went very poorly. Welcome to our world. :)!

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Jerry, here's a blogger I follow who has some real insight on China. The link is a Google search for him/China. 15 minutes of reading should scare the living Hell out of all of us. Enjoy!

Ishkabibble said...

Trade needs to be reciproated in the short run if it is to succeed in the long run. This is the problem with the 1st world model. It's built with the intent to sustain a trade imbalance. The greater this imbalance becomes, the less likely nations are to continue playing into the game.

I think China is onto something with bilateral currency swaps... an approach that could save them. The hidden benefit in currency swaps is that both nations end up with a safer medium for balanced trade. Provided both nations reasonably balance their trade volumes, say annually, the model is sustainable. Employment will increase as the velocity of trade through the bilateral swaps grows. All of this reduces dependence on the USD and 1st world economy, giving China an edge.

Can China pull it off while the US and developed world convulses? Do they have the foresight to realize the importance of balanced trade instead of storing fiat? I think they can, and nothing teaches the fallacy of fiat more rapidly than the kicking China will soon take on the USD. They will never recover the value they exchanged for worthless fiat, but becoming the controlling world power may be reward enough.

We know how many citizens exist within China. It will take considerable time to turn those savers into balanced consumers. But if China puts a balanced trade program in place, more time is what they will have.

For all the benefits an SDR system might offer, it's still easily gamed. As a medium of measure it could work, but as currency it seems doomed to the same fate as the USD. Better a system based on honor, where nobody is exposed to extreme risk due to sustained imbalances.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Speaking of food, is the President's wife telling us to eat cake? As I have said many times, both groups are crime syndicates stealing us blind!

Michelle Obama flashes expensive taste, carries $5,950 alligator envelope clutch in Russian woods

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Jerry, I have followed Gerald for a good long while. He has, like me, no use for the political crime syndicates. Here is the truth:

Biden Admission: Obama Plan Doomed
By Gerald Celente

KINGSTON, NY -- Vice President Joseph Biden's admission that the Obama Administration's economic recovery plan was predicated on egregiously inaccurate forecasts consigns the entire effort to failure, predicts Gerald Celente.

"The plan is based upon false premises," said Celente, Director of The Trends Research Institute, referring to White House projections used to sell the stimulus package to the nation. To make their case, Washington warned that without the Obama stimulus, unemployment, then at 7.2 percent, would rise above 8 percent in 2009 and peak at 9 percent in 2010.

Yet, only midway through 2009, the unemployment rate is already 9.5 percent and rising. "This is an enormous miscalculation," contends Celente. "In real world terms, it means that 2.5 million more Americans than anticipated have lost their jobs. The inaccuracy of the forecast undermines the validity not only of the plan, but also of the planners."

Joe Biden sidestepped blame, pleading "guilty with an explanation." Weaseled Biden, "The truth is, we and everyone else misread the economy."

NO! "Everyone else" did not "misread the economy." The Trends Research Institute read it correctly, and has been reading it correctly for decades.

"How often does the government have to be wrong, and how wrong do they have to be before people and the media stop taking them seriously?" wondered Celente. "The first spending package didn't deliver as promised, and now Obama's advisors want another stimulus, as if doubling up on failure will achieve success."

"If we made forecasts as inaccurate as the Obama team's and implemented similarly unsuccessful plans, and then tried to salvage the situation by repeating exactly the same mistakes, we'd have been laughed out of business long ago," Celente said.

Celente contends there are but three possible explanations for President Obama and his "brilliant" team of economic advisors "misreading how bad the economy was":

1. They're ignorant, despite PhD's and impressive resumes.
2. They are so arrogant they are incapable of acknowledging that anyone outside the incestuous Beltway circle could possibly get it right ... when they've got it wrong.
3. They actually do know better, but are lying.

"None of these suffice as excuses," concluded Celente, "but the inability or unwillingness to make accurate forecasts appears to be a Vice Presidential prerequisite." This past January, departing VP Dick Cheney sloughed off his administration's central role in accelerating the financial crisis and failure to head it off, claiming, "Nobody anywhere was smart enough to figure it out."

Anyone in the media interested in interviewing one person who was "smart enough to figure it out" should talk to Gerald Celente.

The Greatest Depression is at hand. The stimulus, bailout and buyout packages being forced on the nation by an Administration that "misread how bad the economy was" will only lead to "Obamageddon": The Fall of Empire America.

jerry, of eye on washington said...


Thanks for the compliment on the piece. I appreciate it! I too am sick of watching our First Lady become a fashion centerfold for all the grocery fashion magazines. To have to change clothes on the plane before landing in Europe so as to walk out in a fresh outfit coordinated with the children is a bit over the top. It is always about making an entrance. Style above substance appears to be the message.

Gerald Celente's criticism is well-founded. I was angry, too, after reading Biden's cop-out comment "who would have known?"

There were many who were predicting the fall-out of the economy since 2007. To dismiss Roubini, Talibi, Stiglitz, and others is an insult. Biden knew the projections. Obama knew the projects. His Banksta Team knew the projections. It is NOT like there are two sets of data out there. There is one set, therefore, they all knew. This has been all about Trickle Down economics. Hand it to the top and let it trickle down like a dripping shower head. Place a cup under it and get what you can.

I have a suspicion that know one believes either Biden or Obama's retort comment that they were given incomplete information.


I appreciate your comment. Bilateral currency swaps are an interesting China option to the single currency reserve currency they are objecting to.

It seems that the final decision is sometime away from now. My guess is that these nations, and the IMF will move extremely slowly on any changes.


SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Jerry, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. The evil be-atches are trying to start the machine up once again. LOL! Comical really.

Morgan Stanley Plans to Turn Downgraded Loan CDO Into AAA Bonds

(Or "how I learned to stop worrying, and learned to love the Bond".)

By Pierre Paulden, Caroline Salas and Sarah Mulholland

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley plans to repackage a downgraded collateralized debt obligation backed by leveraged loans into new securities with AAA ratings in the first transaction of its kind, said two people familiar with the sale.

Morgan Stanley is selling $87.1 million of securities that it expects to receive top AAA ratings and $42.9 million of notes graded Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, according to marketing documents obtained by Bloomberg News. The bonds were created from Greywolf CLO I Ltd., a CDO arranged in January 2007 by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and managed by Greywolf Capital Management LP, an investment firm based in Purchase, New York.

Two years after the credit markets began to seize up, costing the world’s biggest financial institutions $1.47 trillion in writedowns and losses, banks are again taking so- called structured finance securities and turning them into new debt investments with top credit ratings. While the Morgan Stanley deal is the first to involve CDOs of loans, banks have been doing the same with commercial mortgage-backed securities in recent weeks.

A lot of banks and insurers “cannot buy anything but AAA,” said Sylvain Raynes, a principal at R&R Consulting in New York and co-author of “Elements of Structured Finance,” which is due to be published in November by Oxford University Press. “You’re manufacturing AAA out of not AAA, therefore allowing those people who have AAA written on their forehead to buy.”

jerry, of eye on washington said...


Thanks for the posting. I read that this AM and was amazed that these thieves are going to take bottom of the barrel CDOs and convert them into AAA bonds to sell to suckers. Now who would buy them? No one bit Timmy-the Titanic--Geithner's PPIP deal regarding the toxic mortgage debt bombs, whereby the government-FDIC, was to pick up 80% of the purchase and the private investor only had to put up around 15% or less. No one took the bait, yet here some fool(s) would consider buying the junk bonds? Amazing. I say go for it Wall Street.


SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Jerry, when PPIP was first announced it had a $1 Trillion Price Tag, while the actual amount is a measly $40 Billion Dollars. These damn announcements are the pump and dump variety, where reality is nowhere near what they promised. This is the very same bullshit as before. Take a bunch of pure shit BBB- from various pools and turn it into 24K AAA Paper. I guess you really can spin gold from straw.

As another example, we have the $787 Stimulus Package, of which 10%has been used. Why only 10% when this was passed months ago? Because they have to go to the debt market to fund damn near everything, and this way they can claim a huge amount, while the truth is once again a measly amount. The second stimulus package will be run the same way. Jerry, we live in OZ!

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Jerry, we have a second failure for China this week in the debt market:

China Fails to Attract Enough Buyers in Bill Sales

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- China failed to attract enough bidders in a government debt sale for a second time this week on speculation that policy makers will rein in money supply to avoid any pickup in inflation.

The Ministry of Finance sold 25.1 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) in bills of the 35 billion yuan it had sought, according to traders at China Postal Savings Bank and Industrial Securities Co., who asked not to be identified. It sold 12.48 billion yuan of 91-day bills at 1.15 percent and 12.65 billion yuan of 273-day bills at 1.25 percent.

The People’s Bank of China has been pushing up money-market rates in the past two weeks, seeking to choke off the supply of funds used to speculate on stocks and real estate without derailing a 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan. Chinese banks extended 1.53 trillion yuan of new loans in June, more than double the amount in May, the central bank said on July 8.

“The central bank’s open-market operations suggest concerns that the rapid surge in new bank lending in the first half of this year could fuel inflation,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “Market players have also started to worry about early tightening risk.”


SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Jerry, where does this leave the US Constiution and our RIGHTS? Sold down the river comes to mind!

Medvedev Shows Off Sample Coin of New ‘World Currency’ at G-8

By Lyubov Pronina

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev illustrated his call for a supranational currency to replace the dollar by pulling from his pocket a sample coin of a “united future world currency.”

“Here it is,” Medvedev told reporters today in L’Aquila, Italy, after a summit of the Group of Eight nations. “You can see it and touch it.”

The coin, which bears the words “unity in diversity,” was minted in Belgium and presented to the heads of G-8 delegations, Medvedev said.

The question of a supranational currency “concerns everyone now, even the mints,” Medvedev said. The test coin “means they’re getting ready. I think it’s a good sign that we understand how interdependent we are.”

Medvedev has repeatedly called for creating a mix of regional reserve currencies as part of the drive to address the global financial crisis, while questioning the U.S. dollar’s future as a global reserve currency. Russia’s proposals for the G-20 meeting in London in April included the creation of a supranational currency.


carlandjerry said...


Once again, thanks for the SNIPS. It sure seems that China is beginning to show signs of a similar economic crisis to the one here. Although, they run the world's manufacturing facilities, but if the world cannot or will not be able to purchase the products, then those plants will shut down.

Chinese speculators are nervous about buying bonds, although the article called them "bills" that they must feel they can lose value. Geithner is finding that, too. No one wants to buy his junk.

China's stimulus is huge, but so is the country. They keep pouring it into jobs and production. They must feel that they can generate enough domestic growth to be self-sustaining. That might work, but I have my doubts. Yet, they appear to have time on their side. At least they have an economy that creates and a people that can buy what they make! Yet they have a huge population.

They are creating Yuan and hoping to sell to those within the real economy instead of speculators. In return, the government generates a flow back into their central bank. That sounds like what North Dakota does. I guess that is called quantitative easing. Many feel that leads to hyperinflation. It appears that it might create an inflationary environment in China, but then wages can increase, too.

I am surely no economist, and don't really believe in looking so far down the rabbit hole that it becomes impossible to make anything out. I can only imagine one to two years, and even then, there can be so many unknowns that will likely emerge and alter the future.

Now, Medvedev is playing a mind game with the Obama Team with showing his "coin". Pittsburgh will be hosting the G-20 in several weeks. I bet there will be a lot of demonstrators flocking here to call for a closing of the Fed, and more.


SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Jerry, they mention Bills and not Bonds because they won't touch a longer dated debt instrument. At this point they use it as leverage against us by threatening not to buy as these short dated instruments roll over. They have us by the short hairs, and we did it to ourselves.

Jerry, these evil thieves are stealing from us coming and going. Read this snip, and you will see what I mean. It's a rigged game that the little guy has no chance of winning. As Karl Denniger would say, "where are the cops"?

Banks buying back TARP warrants at a discount, panel says
Published on 07-10-2009

WASHINGTON - A panel that oversees the $700 billion bank bailout package said Friday that financial institutions buying out warrants they gave the government in exchange for capital injections are now buying back those stakes at well below their fair value.

The Congressional Oversight Panel, which is charged with overseeing the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, said in a report that a group of 11 small banks that have repurchased government warrants in exchange for taxpayer-funded assistance, have bought-out the stakes at 66% of their face value.

The oversight panel, which employed three Harvard University valuation experts to conduct the analysis, said taxpayers would have received $10 million more had the warrants been sold back to the banks at their face value.

The report argues that liquidity discounts are a key factor for why the warrants were purchased at such low prices. Should a similar discount be a major factor for warrant repurchases at larger institutions buying out government stakes, the shortfall to taxpayers could be as much as $2.7 billion, the report said.

A group of 32 financial firms, including 10 large financial institutions, paid $70.2 billion to buy out preferred shares Treasury received when they received financial assistance. These buyouts have made the firms eligible to buy back the warrants the government received along with the preferred shares.

Banks that received financial assistance as part of TARP were required to give the government warrants for the future purchase of some of their common shares. Warrants are the right to buy common shares of a company at a set price at some point in the future.

The report said, however, that the Treasury may have other goals with the repurchases that supersede maximizing taxpayer returns.

"Treasury has said that it wants to allow banks to operate again without TARP assistance as soon as they are strong enough to do so," it said.


SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Jerry, this is from Bill Bonner explaining our debt debacle:

Let’s see. We can figure this out from the numbers above. American consumers must have added about $7 trillion in extra debt during the Bubble Epoque, 2002–2007. Now, instead of buying things, they use their money to pay it down. The average household has about $43,000 worth of income. Let’s keep the math simple by saying there are 100 million households in the United States…and that they save 5% of their income. And let’s say they use every penny of savings to pay down debt. Hey…it will only take about 30 years to pay it off! Get ready for a long, long slump.

carlandjerry said...


"The report said, however, that the Treasury may have other goals with the repurchases that supersede maximizing taxpayer returns.

"Treasury has said that it wants to allow banks to operate again without TARP assistance as soon as they are strong enough to do so," it said."

I guess the goal is to rip-off the taxpayers in order to favor those who brought down the economy in the first place.

This is my view---the consumer definitely must take some of the blame for their current fate, but the fact remains that they were told from the President Bush on down that spending and borrowing was good for the country. That low interest rates, high returns on equities, and that speculation was the way wealth was to be created, and productivity and an increase in GDP, as well as foreign investment was healthy for the nation.

Bush said after 9-11 for America to go shopping! "Leave your troubles in an old kit bag and smile, smile, smile."

This is what many, many Americans believed. They are not economists. They saw that when the Tech Bubble broke, it took down the value of equities,but the recovery only took a couple years to show progress again. They think the same way today! They don't realize that these lost jobs are gone forever.

Currently, the consumer is being punished, so to speak, by seeing that the financial syndicate con artists, such as Geithner, are continuing to offer special deals and arrangements to those banksta thieves.

Spectre, I am assuming you feel the same, how disheartening it is that there are no real leaders, other than Ron Paul and a few others who don't really march into the public eye screaming how we should not take this anymore.

Michael Jackson, upon his death, gets a massive vocal and public audience. I guess upon the death of America it will be then when the loud voices of protest and anger begin to get loudly heard.


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Anonymous said...

Those who will continue to suffer are those in the middle and lower classes as their pieces get knocked off the board.

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Anonymous said...

Trade needs to be reciproated in the short run if it is to succeed in the long run.

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