If a radiological fire develops and further cooling is impossible, more than 10% of the radioactive material of SFP 4 could be released. Results for the base case scenario above can be directly scaled to estimate the impact of a larger percentage release.
Release of 100% of the cesium, strontium, and other isotopes would scale the base case results by a factor of ten and would clearly present a dire situation for areas of Japan, marine life in the Pacific ocean, and the global environment. A release of 100% of the SFP 4 cesium and strontium from SFP 4 would represent a 30 – 100 times larger release than occurred in March 2011.
Loss of shielding provided by the pool water would also result in extremely high radiation levels in the immediate area. Such extreme radiation levels can make it impossible for human workers or robots to enter the area and attempt cooling operations or other mitigation strategies. Concerns have further been raised that high radiation levels from a SFP 4 failure may prevent access and maintenance to the nearby common fuel pool and the rest of the Daiichi nuclear plant. The total inventory of radioisotopes at the plant is roughly an order of magnitude greater than the SFP 4 inventory.
Conclusions
The risk of radiological fire and a major radioactivity release decreases as time passes and the waste heat output of the SFP 4 inventory declines. Whether or not a radiological fire would occur during a rapid loss of cooling water or a collapse of the pool is impossible to determine with certainty because of the many unknowns. Government agencies and national laboratories, which have developed detailed models for such situations, may be able to provide a reasonable estimate of probabilities. However, we have not been able to locate any such analysis for the current situation even though more than a year has passed since the March 2011 explosions and radiation releases.
Given available information, the most reasonable assumption is that a radiological fire remains possible. Based on spent fuel heat decay curves, the fuel in SPF 4 is probably still producing more than 1 MW of waste heat that is not easily dissipated without cooling water. A radiological fire would likely result in a major release of radioactive isotopes as there is currently no significant barrier between SFP 4 and the environment. The exact amount of material that would be volatilized and/or released into the ocean is also impossible to determine.
A high risk of large earthquakes in the coming months along with the extremely damaged and unstable state of the reactor 4 building mean that the potential modes of a SFP 4 failure are unknown. Would a large crack occur, leading to sudden loss of cooling water but with the pool walls remaining largely intact, impeding heat dissipation? Or would the pool collapse leading to a disordered and unpredictable configuration of the fuel assemblies as they fall some 30 meters?
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We can conclude at this point only that the potential exists for severe additional contamination of Japan, parts of the Pacific ocean, and other parts of the world due to atmospheric and ocean transport. If there is no further damage to SFP 4 before fuel removal, or if damage occurs but cooling is maintained and radiological fires or hydrogen explosions are avoided, releases of radioactive material may be minimal. According to media reports, work to remove the SFP 4 radioactive material is currently scheduled for late 2013.
The situation is thus one of undetermined event risk, but extreme consequences if the event does occur (the event being SFP 4 failure with radiological fire or other mode of major radioactivity release). This event risk may be substantial based on available information. Depending on the nature of the failure, the consequences could be mainly confined to Japan and nearby ocean areas, or could extend to varying degrees of global impact. The former case is relevant for release of a small percentage of SFP 4 inventory while the latter case would result following a substantial percentage release from SFP 4 and possibly additional releases from surrounding inventory at the Daiichi plant.
Our recommendations based on this bounding analysis are as follows:
- Governments and other organizations with advanced modeling capabilities should immediately conduct an analysis of SFP waste heat levels and the possibility of radiological fire in the event of SFP 4 failure, and make the results publicly available.
- If there is still a significant possibility of radiological fire and large additional releases of radioactive material within the coming months, immediate action should be taken to accelerate removal and/or protection of the SFP 4 contents. Although the technical challenges of such an operation are enormous, the potential impact of a failure is great enough that international resources should be quickly mobilized to address this issue.
- Industries potentially affected by major additional radioactivity releases in Japan should draw up contingency plans to prepare for the impact of further events. If an earthquake or other event results in SFP 4 collapse, events will unfold very quickly leaving no time for emergency planning.
- Members of the public, particularly in Japan and the U.S., should pressure authorities to perform accurate and honest assessments of risks, to prepare plans to handle further earthquakes or other damage to SFP 4 and the rest of the plant, and to accelerate mitigation activities.
In closing, we note that the above analysis is a rough estimation of potential impact in lieu of in-depth, detailed analyses from official agencies. It addresses only the SFP 4 question and does not discuss ongoing problems with other reactor cores at the site. We also did not include the numerous unpublished radiation measurements performed by the public and others. These measurements may well represent important findings, but are not suitable for inclusion in a bounding analysis of this type until verified.
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Although we reviewed a number of papers discussing worldwide fallout from the March 2011 event, we did not directly estimate impact to other countries in this report. There are so many variables associated with transport of radioactive material that we felt it most useful to focus on Japan and nearby areas of the Pacific ocean. Official reports and published papers so far are generally not reporting substantial impact of the March 2011 release on other countries. As additional results are published, or at the request of our clients, we may revisit this issue in a future report
References:
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Notes:
Japan’s former Ambassador to Switzerland, Mr. Mitsuhei Murata, was invited to speak at the Public Hearing of the Budgetary Committee of the House of Councilors on March 22, 2012, on the Fukushima nuclear power plants accident. Before the Committee, Ambassador Murata strongly stated that if the crippled building of reactor unit 4—with 1,535 fuel rods in the spent fuel pool 100 feet (30 meters) above the ground—collapses, not only will it cause a shutdown of all six reactors but will also affect the common spent fuel pool containing 6,375 fuel rods, located some 50 meters from reactor 4. In both cases the radioactive rods are not protected by a containment vessel; dangerously, they are open to the air. This would certainly cause a global catastrophe like we have never before experienced. He stressed that the responsibility of Japan to the rest of the world is immeasurable. Such a catastrophe would affect us all for centuries.
Note 2: Spent nuclear fuel waste heat decreases with time. According to World-nuclear and other sources, the waste heat generated by SFP 4 in spring 2011 was between 2 MW and 3 MW. The precise decay rate for this waste heat is difficult to determine because of the many isotopes present, the varying ages (relative to date of removal from the reactor), and the particular history of the fuel rods within the reactor. Fuel rod waste heat decays nominally from about 10 kW per tonne at one year after removal to 1 kW per tonne at ten years
(www.fukushima.ans.org, www.world-nuclear.org). Depending on the heat decay rate applied, the current waste heat production is likely between 0.5 MW and 1.5 MW as of April 2012. Various agencies and organizations have detailed information on the fuel rod history and computational models capable of making more precise estimates.
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(http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com)